Heavy rain in early November, but has Bali’s southern rainy season actually started?
If you’ve been in Bali these past few days, you’ve probably noticed it: the sky changes in an instant, with a sudden downpour in early November—intense and relentless. Weather authorities issued a moderate-to-heavy rain warning for the entire island in late October, along with high coastal waves.
Many might think, ‘With rain this heavy, the rainy season must be here, right?’ Honestly, not yet.
The southern rainy season won’t arrive until mid-December
Forecasts divide Bali into 20 zones. In the south, including Denpasar, Kuta, Canggu, and Uluwatu, the rainy season is expected to officially begin between December 11 and 20.
The entire island is seeing a delay compared to previous years:
- Earliest: Late November, in the mountainous area around Bedugul, covering 3 zones
- Starting in December: Most of the remaining 17 regions
- Latest: After December 20, including Nusa Penida, the east coast, and the north coast
14 regions will see the rainy season delayed by over a month, with some areas delayed by as much as 60 to 70 days. Compared to last year, when some parts of the island entered the rainy season in early October, the timing this year is very different.
Why So Late?
The main cause is El Niño, which meteorologists assess as being very strong this year. Across Indonesia, the rainy season is delayed by about 20 to 30 days compared to normal, and Bali is naturally affected as well.
So, the heavy rainfall in early November, in my understanding, is more like localized convection during the seasonal transition, not a sign that the rainy season has firmly arrived.
Drought Not Yet Over
Despite the rain, some areas remain under water shortage alerts. Bali’s disaster management agency and the Red Cross have delivered nearly 178,000 liters of clean water to drought-stricken areas. Forecasts also indicate that dry weather may persist in some regions until around November 20.
Short Rainy Season, But Potentially Heavier Rains
This is the most noteworthy point. In 18 out of 20 regions, the rainy season will be shorter than usual. Rain will be more concentrated, making individual downpours potentially more intense:
- February 2027 is the rainiest month across the island
- The peak in the central mountains is in January
- The peak in the western and parts of the eastern regions is in March
Meteorological authorities also remind everyone to prepare in advance for flooding and landslides.
For Travelers Coming Soon
- November to mid-December: Overall weather is still fairly stable, but sudden heavy rain may hit in the afternoon or evening. Try to schedule outdoor activities in the morning.
- Mountainous and steep road areas (around Ubud, Tegallalang, Nusa Penida): Be extra cautious during heavy rain and don’t push through.
- Carry a lightweight raincoat—it’s more practical than an umbrella and convenient when riding a scooter.
- Accommodation: Choose a place that’s not in a low-lying area and has easy access routes.
The late arrival of the rainy season actually has a silver lining for travelers: the weather around December this year is more likely to stay stable than in previous years. But when the rain does come, it might come in waves of heavy downpours. Keeping your itinerary flexible means you won’t have to worry about an unexpected storm throwing things off.
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